20-year mortgages at 3.66%, Antibes flats up 4.9%: the Cap’s market as money gets dearer

On 10 September the European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, its second increase this year after June. Its deposit rate has stood at 2.50% since 16 September. The bank pointed to the energy shock from the conflict in the Middle East and still expects inflation in the euro area to average 3.0% in 2026.

Mortgages in October

French banks have passed the increase on. Average rates in October, according to PAP.fr and the broker Pretto, are:

• 15 years: 3.50%
• 20 years: 3.66%
• 25 years: 3.75%

The strongest borrowers are offered about 3.00%, 3.20% and 3.25%. Depending on the term, rates are 0.07 to 0.15 points higher than in September. The yield on France’s ten-year government bond, the benchmark banks watch when pricing loans, briefly reached a record 4.94% on 1 October.

What that costs: on a €1 million loan over 20 years, the monthly repayment at 3.66% is €5,882, against €5,820 at September’s 3.54% – €62 more a month and about €14,900 over the life of the loan, before insurance and fees.

The ECB’s next decision is due on 29 October.

Antibes rises while Nice and Cannes slip

Dearer credit has not yet cooled prices in Antibes. The SeLoger and Meilleurs Agents barometer for September 2026 puts the average apartment in Antibes at €6,529 per square metre, 4.9% more than a year earlier. In Cannes the figure is €6,064, down 1.1%; in Nice €5,219, down 1.4%. Across Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the notaires’ and INSEE’s index showed prices of existing homes up 1.8% in the year to the end of 2025.

These are town-wide averages for apartments. They describe the town around the Cap, not the value of a villa on it, where a single sale can be worth a street of flats in the centre.

What the Cap actually sold for

Recorded sale prices come from DVF, the register of property sales published by the French tax authority. VERA’s reading of it, last loaded on 28 September 2026, runs to the end of 2025. It counts 195 sales of one or two homes at €2 million or more in Antibes between 2021 and 2025, at a median of €3.2 million and €17,029 per square metre. 168 of them are on the Cap itself, inside VERA’s line round the peninsula, at a median of €3.21 million.

The median sale of €2 million or more was €3.47 million in 2021 and €3.0 million in 2025. A median moves with what happens to sell in a given year, so the change describes the sales, not the value of any one house.

What is for sale

VERA’s list of homes for sale on the Cap, read from the agencies’ own websites on 1 October, counts 248 properties from 19 agencies:

• 173 villas
• 70 apartments
• 5 other properties

241 show a price. The median asking price is €3.98 million, and the range runs from €299,000 to €58.95 million. Nine have had their price cut since August.

An asking price is the agency’s claim, not a transaction; only DVF records what a house actually sold for.

What to watch

• 29 October: the ECB’s next rate decision, and with it the direction of mortgage rates into the winter.
• The October DVF release: the State updates the register twice a year, in April and October, and last did so in April 2026. The next is expected, as in past October releases, to add the sales of the first half of 2026, and may add late-recorded sales to earlier years. VERA will read it as soon as it is published, and The Cap Insider will report what it shows for the Cap.

Every home for sale is on the full list, and the recorded sales are on the Market page. For a single house, the free Price Position Brief sets its asking price against the rest of the Cap.

Sources: European Central Bank – Monetary policy decisions, 10 September 2026 – https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.fr.html · Banco de España – ECB raises rates by 25 basis points in June, 11 June 2026 – https://www.bde.es/wbe/en/noticias-eventos/actualidad-bce/decisiones-politica-monetaria/bce-tipos-junio26.html · ABC Bourse, relaying PAP.fr – mortgage rates in October 2026, 8 October 2026 – https://www.abcbourse.com/marches/credit-immobilier-les-taux-depassent-3-50-en-octobre-et-une-nouvelle-hausse-s_703911 · Pretto – mortgage rates, October 2026 analysis, updated 6 October 2026 – https://www.pretto.fr/taux-immobilier/historique-taux-immobilier/2026/analyse-taux-immobilier-octobre-2026/ · actual-immo.fr – SeLoger and Meilleurs Agents barometer, September 2026, and the Notaires-INSEE index, 2 October 2026 – https://www.actual-immo.fr/prix-immobilier-cote-d-azur/ · VERA – the €2 million market, Antibes and the Cap (DVF, DGFiP), register read 28 September 2026 – https://capdantibes.co/market/ · VERA listings register – agencies’ own websites, read 1 October 2026 – https://capdantibes.co/for-sale/ · DVF – Demandes de valeurs foncières (DGFiP), data.gouv.fr – https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/demandes-de-valeurs-foncieres/